Alliance power: Anti-incumbency and opposition unity are putting brakes on BJP???s formidable election machine

The results from four Lok Sabha and 11 assembly bypolls spanning 11 states ring a warning bell that BJP and its allies cannot ignore. If viewed as a snap opinion poll of the country???s mood, NDA is in trouble after winning just three of these 15 contests. In the bellwether state of UP which gave NDA 73 seats in 2014, an RLD candidate backed by SP and Congress with tacit support from BSP has wrested Kairana. In Noorpur an SP candidate sailed through. Coming on the heels of bypoll defeats in Gorakhpur and Phulpur, it raises questions about BJP???s gambit of appointing Yogi Adityanath as chief minister.

A combination of gathering anti-incumbency and the electoral arithmetic of opposition parties coming together is putting brakes on BJP???s much vaunted electoral machine. In Kairana, RLD won by nearly 45,000 votes against BJP???s 2014 victory margin of 2.35 lakh votes. RLD leader Jayant Chaudhary pitched it as a ???Ganna versus Jinnah??? campaign, highlighting the crash in sugarcane prices and the failure of sugarcane mills to pay farmers dues. The strategy paid rich dividends by curbing BJP???s ability to play the minority card.

At a time when ???secular??? political parties are playing down their association with Muslim voters fearing a Hindu consolidation, RLD took a gamble by fielding a Muslim woman candidate, tested the communal polarisation in western UP, and proved that opposition unity can overcome the fissures. The result from Maharashtra is no less significant and is a warning to BJP to mend fences with estranged ally Shiv Sena. BJP scraped through in Palghar against Shiv Sena due to the division of opposition votes, while in Bhandara-Gondia the NCP-Congress alliance prevailed. These were seats BJP won by a 2.4 lakh and 1.5 lakh majority respectively in 2014. The changing winds should tell their own story.

In Bihar???s Muslim dominated Jokihat, RJD again overcame the formidable JD(U)-BJP alliance and the party is gaining in confidence heading into 2019. For opposition parties, the bypoll results make a persuasive case to begin seat sharing talks without losing time. BJP, which has to defend governments in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh later this year in a climate of growing anti-incumbency, will ponder intently whether to advance general elections. Its ???Modi versus the rest??? strategy has to contend with a lacklustre economy and voters beginning to differentiate between Modi the leader and BJP the party.