The four Lok Sabha and 11 Vidhan Sabha bypolls were spread across 11 states accounting for 264 Lok Sabha seats. The 12-3 verdict against the BJP will alarm the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo. It is these two leaders who have built the BJP edifice from scratch since 2013 and it is the domination of these two leaders rather than the BJP that is being questioned by the fledgeling opposition unity of 2018. BJP will survive to fight another day given that kichdi coalitions like United Front and National Front are unlikely to last long and Congress unlikely to outdo its 2004 performance of 145 seats. But the all-powerful partnership of Modi and Shah are unlikely to remain the same in the event of a setback.
Let???s look at Kairana first. In 2014, Hukum Singh of BJP polled 5.65 lakh votes and 50.7% of all votes polled. His nearest SP rival had a 29% voteshare. Cut to 2018, RLD which polled just 42,000 votes in 2014 has bagged over 4 lakh votes boosted by support from SP, BSP and Congress. The BJP???s 21% lead in 2014 has now become a 5% deficit amid a vote turnout decline of 19% from 2014 to 2018. Both BJP and a hypothetical combined opposition have seen their votes fall from 2014 amid this decline in turnout but obviously, the BJP???s fall is sharper. By putting up a Muslim candidate too, RLD has made a powerful statement that this united opposition is not scared of so-called ???Hindu??? consolidation.
In Noorpur, BJP polled 39.2% of vote but benefitted from the split in Muslim votes between the Muslim candidates fielded by SP and BSP, each of which polled 32% and 22% votes respectively. The SP victory by 6000 odd votes after wiping away the 13,000 vote deficit from 2017 is interesting for another reason. The BSP polled 22,000 votes in the election and the 19,000 vote net gain by SP indicates a clean transfer of BSP votes to SP.
In Maharashtra, BJP is in a spot of bother and it would know that. In Palghar, Shiv Sena and the BVA ran BJP close. Any sort of tacit understanding that either of these parties can make with CPM which came fourth or Congress which stood fifth could change the result in 2019. Meanwhile, Udhav Thackeray has announced his resolve to go it alone in all future elections. In Bhandara-Gondia, Congress and NCP brushed their considerable differences under the carpet and checked the BJP. While NCP vetoed Congress???s proposal of fielding Nana Patole who crossed over from BJP to it, the fact that Congress backed down shows the party is serious about renewing its alliance with NCP.
The performance of JMM in Jharkhand and RJD in Bihar will worry BJP. Congress has been content to play second fiddle in every state, even ceding the coveted finance portfolio to JD(S) in Karnataka. Such bending over backwards to allies is not in the new BJP???s DNA but it is a strategy that Congress realizes can help check BJP. Turning the CBI on these newfound alliances is also unlikely to help considering how none of the CBI or ED???s cases against politicians and big businesses has gone nowhere. Even the argument that kichdi coalitions will hamper governance hasn’t sold, atleast in these bypolls.
Will BJP offer better terms to its allies in this new scenario or shift further to the centre and moderate its hardline agenda? Or will it intensify its Hindutva campaigns? Given the Modi-Shah duo???s ability to lead political campaigns day in and day out and fight on multiple fronts and give out new slogans, a new strategy would certainly be in the works. Will it be a snap poll in a few months from now that catches everyone by surprise? We will know the answer very soon.
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