The by-election results spell bad news for BJP and signal to the Opposition that local-level unity can defeat BJP. The most telling result is from the Kairana, where elections were called for by the death of a BJP legislator.
A candidate, nominally of Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), but supported by Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress defeated the BJP candidate ??? daughter of the leader who died and, so, entitled to some sympathy votes ??? by a hefty margin.
The victory is remarkable because SP, BSP and RLD represent, in the main, different, often warring, social groups. That the Jats could be mobilised by RLD to vote for a Muslim candidate, despite the recent history of communal animosity between Jats and Muslims, will be touted by RLD as proof of its continuing relevance and earn it a place in the combined Opposition ranks.
Maintaining such unity into the 2019 general elections and beyond is the challengefor the Opposition. NCP???s lacklustre campaign in Maharashtra???s Bhandara-Gondiya, where its candidate won, nevertheless, is an example of the kind of pressure BJP can bring to bear to break Opposition unity.
The bickering over allocation of portfolios in Karnataka between post-poll allies Congress and JD(S) is an example of the kind of hurdles the Opposition places in its own path to staying together, as is Mayawati???s warning that fair allocation of seats is essential for continued unity. RJD???s wresting of an assembly seat from BJP-ally JD(U) in Bihar, too, bodes ill for BJP.
Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis made sense when he requested estranged ally Shiv Sena to abandon its plan to go it alone in 2019. Jharkhand Mukti Morcha???s victory in Jharkhand makes it a prime object of rival affections for 2019. Be prepared to see a battle for allies.
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